Trump's initiative has sparked heated debates in the crypto community and among experts. Samson Mow and other analysts have highlighted key flaws in the plan that could jeopardize its success. Let's take a closer look.
1. Trump's Limited Power: Congress Decides Everything
Despite his grandiose statements, Trump does not have the sole authority to create a crypto reserve. The process requires:
- Formation of a working group to prepare proposals;
Approval of Congress, which must pass the relevant law.
Without legislative backing, the initiative will remain just words, Mou emphasizes. Given the political polarization in the U.S., getting congressional approval could take months or even years. That makes Trump’s plans more of a populist statement than a real strategy.
2. Suspicions of manipulation and lobbying
The rise in prices of XRP, SOL, and ADA immediately after Trump's announcement has fueled speculation about possible manipulation. Mow suggests:
- The statement could have been made to support lobbyists promoting specific altcoins.
- Sudden price spike indicates leaked information that allowed insiders to profit before the official release
For example, David Sachs, the White House's designated "crypto czar," is a prominent investor in Solana. This raises questions about conflicts of interest and undermines confidence in the objectivity of the asset selection.
3. Altcoins in Question: Not All Will Pass the Filter
Mow argues that XRP, SOL, ADA and ETH are unlikely to meet the criteria for inclusion in the strategic reserve. The US, as a country with a developed legal system, will most likely use strict standards similar to the Howey test (used by the SEC to determine securities). Possible requirements:
- Proof of Work (PoW): Only assets with a PoW mechanism (like BTC) will be considered safe enough. PoS coins (ETH, SOL, ADA) may be excluded due to manipulation risks.
- Hashing: The asset must dominate its network to protect against attacks.
- No premine: Tokens with an initial distribution among insiders are excluded (XRP, ADA).
- Durability: At least 10 years of stable operation (which excludes SOL and ADA).
- Security: The ability to store in cold wallets with multi-signature.
- Transparency: Full auditability of the blockchain.
By these parameters, Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Monero have a better chance of inclusion than Trump's altcoins. Gemini's Cameron Winklevoss also supports the "only Bitcoin" idea, considering it the only reliable asset for the reserve.
4. Conflict of interest among insiders
The crypto reserve risks becoming a tool for personal gain for Trump's cronies. Examples:
- David Sacks and his investment in Solana;
- Ripple Labs, which has been heavily funding pro-crypto congressional candidates in 2024, may be lobbying for XRP.
Mow fears that instead of a strategic asset, the reserve will turn into a "shitcoin nest egg" serving the interests of a narrow circle of people rather than national priorities.
5. Unresolved technical and organizational issues
Creating a crypto reserve requires clear answers to many questions:
- Who will control?: Which body (Treasury, Fed, or new entity) will take control?
- How to ensure security?: Storing billions in cryptocurrency comes with the risk of hacker attacks.
- How to buy assets?: Will only withdrawn coins be used, or are open market purchases planned?
- How to avoid market impact?: Large-scale operations could destabilize prices.
Without a well-developed strategy, an initiative looks like a raw project that is not ready for implementation.
Market and Community Reaction: From Euphoria to Doubt
Trump's announcement on March 2 caused a short-term spike in prices:
- XRP is up 33%;
- SOL is up 25%;
- ADA is up 60%;
- BTC and ETH are up 10-13%.
However, by March 4, the market had already corrected, and Bitcoin had fallen to $85,000 after the decree was signed on March 6, confirming the instability of the reaction. The crypto community was divided:
- Supporters see the reserve as a step toward mass adoption of cryptocurrencies;
- Critics, including Mow and Winklevoss, believe that altcoins will undermine confidence in the project.
US Cryptocurrency Reserve Outlook 2025
As of March 2025, the US is not ready for a full-scale launch of a cryptocurrency reserve. The main obstacles are:
- Dependency on Congress: Without a legislative basis, the initiative will remain at the level of promises.
- Lack of a plan: There is no clarity on management, security, and selection of assets.
- Conflict of interest: Lobbyists can distort the purposes of the reserve.
If Congress does approve the plan, the U.S. will face new challenges, from technical implementation to market implications. For now, Trump’s loud statements look like an attempt to boost popularity among crypto enthusiasts, rather than a real strategy.
Conclusion: Should we expect a crypto revolution from Trump?
A US national crypto reserve is an idea that could strengthen the country's position in the digital economy, but the current approach raises more questions than enthusiasm. Trump's limited power, risks of manipulation, controversial altcoins, conflicts of interest, and technical uncertainty cast doubt on the project's success. Bitcoin remains the most likely candidate for the reserve, but the inclusion of altcoins could turn the initiative into "crypto chaos." Stay tuned — the White House summit on March 7, 2025, may shed light on the future of cryptocurrency in America. What do you think: will the US become a leader in the crypto industry? Share your opinion in our Telegram channel!
